UP 2012

In the middle of the electoral chaos and mayhem, the stomping of elephants and oiling of cycles; Uttar Pradesh is trying to find its “Mustakbil”. An Urdu synonym for future, the word means – food, shelter, and security for over 19.6 crore people of Uttar Pradesh. Though India’s largest state Uttar Pradesh contributes mere 8.34% to National GDP. The state has managed to grow at the national average growth rate thanks to several packages announced by the Congress led UPA government in hopes of claiming the state.

Mayawati has been in absolute power in the state since the last election, whipping bureaucrats, breaking political bridges, resurrecting statues of her and emptying the state coffers. Her autocratic working might have borne results in the form of Noida development and growth in state infrastructure. However, social development took a beating with the government not being able to deliver on secular administration promise. Initiatives such as Rashtriya Dalit Prerna Sthal proved to be her downfall amongst the upper castes, minorities and educated.

BJP’s import from Madhya Pradesh, Uma Bharti was a suicide attempt by Nitin Gadkari. Such ignorance from the president of a national party should be punishable by sacking. Gadkari’s focus on Bundelkhand has alienated vote banks in North, West and East Uttar Pradesh. It is clear signal of his focus on a region of the state rather than targeting the state itself. Such micro agenda’s would bear meager returns for the party.

Congress prince is yet again put to the acid test. His performance in the last election was termed as victory, however securing 22 seats in a house of 404 seats sums up to little more than 5% of the house. Appointment of 45 observation officers to assert congress Raj in the state is similar to Gadkari’s strategy of focusing on part of the cake. While the national parties aim to play second fiddle or King makers in the state it leaves wide way open for the only opposition left in the state.

Mulayam Singh’s successor and Samajwadi Party’s latest offering to the state, Akhilesh Yadav has caused more than ripples during this election. Loaded with blackberry, ipads and all electoral technology, the SP rising star depended on the party symbol cycle to make a deep impact with the voters. Akhilesh’s Yatra through different districts have been widely acclaimed by political analysts as it showcased the difference the Delhi scion and the son of the soil.

Here are my predictions for the UP poll result:

1. BSP 120 - 150
2. SP 160 - 200
3. BJP 20 - 30
4. Cong 40 - 50
5. Others 20 - 30